STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIPS IN GEOPOLITICS: WHAT IS THE IDEAL APPROACH FOR MALDIVES?
We are amidst a global pandemic, the first of its kind in the 21st Century. A pandemic that marked its arrival in the Chinese mainland. The historic event is now the undertone for every aspect of life, including geopolitical relations. The period is one where a dynamic shift is occurring between international rivals. Potentially the early days of a silent war between the leader of the free world, USA, it’s partner nations and the newly coined economic giant, China. The war is gaining decibel points with each day that passes. Granted, the portrayal of the current scene of geopolitics as simply a competition between China and USA is a massive oversimplification. Other global powers such as Russia, India and Israel have strong ambitions which they do not hide.
In various regions of the world, the oligopoly of global powerhouse nations are using economic favors, diplomatic missions and straightforward military expansions, and lately vaccine diplomacy, to further their national interests — and gain strategic influence over nations with geographical importance. Stating that it is a precursor for war could still be called conjecture. However, as recent flare ups in global events indicate, it is not as far-fetched as we hope. Ofcourse the general consensus is that all these nations are preparing for a worst-case scenarios where diplomacy fails to break a tense situation and global war ensues. Which is not novel behavior for any period of history. Whichever case it may be, one thing is clear; All the global powers are extending their hands in friendship to other nations, with their own national interests in mind. Middle to Low income nations with high corruption indexes are most vulnerable to jumping on bandwagons without hesitation — as the promise of financial influxes sway the people in positions of power.
MUST MALDIVES CHOOSE INDIA OR CHINA?
The streaks of these warring nations were apparent even in the small Indian Ocean island nation of the Maldives. The 2 largest political parties attached themselves to strategic diplomatic partners with very different values, India and China. India’s interest in Maldives is clear. So is China’s. Respectively, the protection and governance of the strategically important Indian Ocean enveloping the India, and an ambitious economic expansion for which Maldives would be an ideal location as part of the maritime trade route.
The current government has strong ties with India, and recent concerns have risen due to the escalation of diplomatic relations, in the form of financial aid and potential establishment of diplomatic postings in southernmost Addu City.
In order to win over the average citizen, promises of national development are often made. Political activists have a tendency to use terms such as xenophobia, and racial bias, political bias (depending on the nation in question) to justify aggressive diplomatic relations and to nullify the valid concerns of citizens who fear the worst. The worst being loss of their national independence or having to experience undue foreign influence in their own homeland.
It is clear from the widescale outrage to both Chinese and Indian influence in Maldives, that the general population would prefer a balanced relationship with all foreign nations.
TRENDS IN RECENT YEARS
The idea attempted to be sold by such political influencers, is that such occurrences do not take place in the modern age. But in a such a globalized community, we simply know that it is not factual. Disputes and undue influence over nations, union territories and autonomous regions are ongoing in the world even today. India, China, Israel and Russia have all been part of such conflicts in the past decade. Whitewashing and obscuring of facts means that the multifaceted nature of such events will never be revealed to its full extent.
However, the fact remains that the progression of such conflicts occur gradually. Like waves can shape a rock, without a doubt, the greatest tool used to influence geographical areas of interest, are waves of consistent and gradual diplomatic action. In order to drive their national interests, these global powers, use masterful strokes of diplomatic artistry. The ultimate target; influence the governance and politics of these nations as per their interests.
We must understand that the Russians did not simply annex Crimea on a whim. It is inconceivable to believe that the territory was not carefully approached and influenced, prior to the military invasion of 2014. A referendum was held after the annexation and Crimean People voted to become part of the Russian Federation. The UN rejects this referendum. Yet, Crimea is part of the Russian Federation today. Since 2020, massive distribution of Russian passports are ongoing. Another step to increase the influence on the occupied region.
The Israelis didn’t take over Palestine over a year — The process has taken 70 years and is still ongoing. Decades have passed since the discussion of two-state solution in the Oslo Accords. Recently re-emerged video footages of PM Netanyahu from 2001, show him dictate his clear intent of hostile takeovers and further annexations of the occupied land of Palestine. Yet the illegal takeover remains unreversed. The massive bulk of the region now under Israeli governance.
The list goes on with countless territorial issues of China. The special administrative region of Hong Kong has been pushed back to increase the influence of Chinese government. Reducing the seats directly elected by the public. A clear response to the recent uprising by the Hong Kong citizens.
Every such situation is wildly different, but for one common ground; The dynamic in the diplomatic relationship between such nations defined how the situation ensued and evolved further
One thing is for certain concerning the sensitive case of change of governance or overall control of a region; once executed it rarely reverts back to how it was. Legality, morality and validity do not appear to be a factor. There is no apparent difference to traditional colonialism, except perhaps for the presence of global media networks to drive the narrative to either appease or inflame the onlookers.
WHAT CAN THE MALDIVIAN GOVERNMENT DO?
Such cases considered, it is important to call on the government of Maldives to exercise balanced diplomatic relationships with all our potential strategic partners. The aim is not to build enmity with India, China or any other such nation, in fact the opposite. Allowing a monopoly on national diplomatic relations reduces the bargaining power of Maldives, puts the future of independence at risk, and hinders relationships with other valuable international partners. It is no secret that due to the strategically important geographical location of our island nation, many global powers would undoubtedly be interested to develop strong ties with us. As is the situation faced by many other Indian ocean island nations including Sri Lanka, Mauritius, Comoros etc
Perhaps the ideal approach here is to maintain friendly relationships with all such potential partners, and above all, prioritize our national interests. Because it would be naivety to assume that any such foreign partners would prioritize our national interests over theirs. And neither should we demand otherwise, whilst we are not doing our duty to protect our own national interests.
MOST IMPORTANTLY, WHAT CAN WE DO?
• Call your public representative, and clarify their stance on strategic partnership with India. Put them on the spot. And ask for reasonable justifications in any advancements in diplomatic relations which do not seem beneficial for the nation.
• Form an unbiased opinion on whether there is true benefit for Maldives is in further strengthening ties with India or loosening ties with China.
• Raise your concerns on social media and keep updated on the progress of the issue
• Raise awareness that this is a national issue, and your political affiliation is secondary to this